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International Climate Policy

In 2015, the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) adopted the Paris Agreement. One of the objectives of the agreement is to keep the global temperature rise well below 2°C and preferably below 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels.

The parties to the agreement have committed to regularly submitting Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). These encompass a range of climate policy goals, whose ambition is to be regularly increased. The first Global Stocktake, which was concluded at COP28 in Dubai in 2023, highlighted that there are far-reaching gaps in ambition and action if the long-term temperature goal is to be met. The necessary reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions has not yet materialised. New NDCs for the period up to 2035 are to be submitted in 2025.

The rulebook for implementing the Paris Agreement was finalised at COP26 in Glasgow in 2021. International climate policy is thus in the implementation phase. This has led to an enormous increase in plurilateral initiatives that address certain aspects of decarbonisation. However, the effectiveness of these initiatives is often disputed. At the same time, multiple crises, geopolitical upheavals and conflict over questions of global justice are complicating international climate negotiations. Financing issues remain the central cleavage between developing countries and industrialised countries - even after the agreement on a new climate finance target (NCQG) at COP29.

Despite these ongoing challenges, the global climate regime has demonstrated resilience and the potential for new coalitions in recent years, with the establishment of a Loss and Damage Fund and the decision to phase out fossil fuels at COP28. The new annual target for international climate finance is at least $300 billion, starting in 2035. This target is complemented by a commitment to channel an overall sum of $1.3 trillion in climate finance to developing countries. 

“Climate foreign policy” in a new geopolitical setting

In addition to traditional climate diplomacy, energy, development, trade and environmental policy also play a crucial role in implementing a global transformation. Since 2021, the German government has been working on integrating these foreign policy dimensions under the term “climate foreign policy”. In 2023, a corresponding Strategy on Climate Foreign Policy was adopted by the German cabinet under the leadership of the Federal Foreign Office. Within this strategy, the activities of various government departments are bundled in order to present a more unified front to partner countries and to strengthen the strategic capacity to act.

International climate policy and the global energy system transformation are becoming more closely linked to geopolitical developments. Attention is therefore increasingly focussed on the USA and China, as well as on other emerging economies. So far, the two largest emitters have been able to cooperate on climate policy issues. The US rejoining the Paris Agreement and the Biden administration’s industrial policy programmes have led to an ambitious US climate policy. However, protectionist measures to shield the US green industry triggered trade disputes with the EU. Donald Trump’s return to the White House represents another turnaround in US climate policy: Trump’s agenda entails a complete withdrawal of the US from international climate policy efforts. In September 2020, the Chinese government announced that the country would become carbon neutral before 2060. China embodies the paradox of the global energy transition like no other country: the breathtakingly rapid expansion of renewable energy continues to be offset by significant investments in fossil fuels such as coal. Western countries increasingly view China's control of supply chains for green technology components such as solar panels and rare earths as a security risk.

Developing and industrialising countries are also increasingly participating in climate policy alliances and, in view of the enormous investment required to develop green energy systems and adapt to climate impacts, they need more financial commitments from industrialised countries. They are also united in their criticism of the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) as a “unilateral trade measure”. While some G20 countries remain cautious, Brazil in particular is trying to position itself as an advocate for the Global South in climate policy.

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