Megatrends Afrika
Major transformations in Africa
African states and societies are undergoing profound transformations. In an increasing number of countries, ever-younger populations demand political change. External actors such as China or Russia intensify their engagement on the continent. The number and scale of armed conflicts are on the rise, particularly in the northern half of Africa.
Global megatrends are driving or influencing such processes of transformation on the African continent. Megatrends are long-term structural changes that largely escape political control. They have profound effects on social, economic, and political orders. Examples include climate change, digitalisation, urbanisation, and shifts in global power relations.
The “Megatrends Africa” project
In the project “Megatrends Afrika: Strukturelle Transformation und internationale Zeitenwende”, we, the project team, explore how megatrends affect African states and societies. We seek to develop ideas for German and European cooperation with African partners that help to make ongoing transformations fairer and more sustainable. This is all the more important as Africa is rising on the agenda of German and European policymakers, as does their need for evidence-based policy advice.
We are currently focussing our research on three areas:
- Violent Actors and Transformation of Conflict
- Megatrends between Processes of Democratization and Autocratization
- Global Power Shifts and Multipolarity
Megatrends Africa is a joint project of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), the German Institute for Development and Sustainability (IDOS), and the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW). Our project cooperates with the Kiel Institute Africa Initiative.
The project’s researchers adhere to the generally accepted principles for ensuring good scientific practice. All project publications are subject to an internal written internal peer review process. In case of our blog series MTA spotlight, the reviewing procedure is conducted through the project director affiliated with the author's organisation. Furthermore the Policy Briefs are subjected to a fact-checking process.
Informing the debate on Africa policy
We produce policy-relevant research on major political, social, and economic trends in Africa. The team brings together scholars from both continents and different disciplines. Our aim is to exchange, take on, and critically question different perspectives. We do so at workshops with representatives from academia, politics, and civil society, through our publications, as well as here on the blog of our website. This way, we wish to contribute to a more nuanced public debate on Africa.
Funding
As an interdepartmentally financed research and advisory project, we receive funding from the German Federal Foreign Office, the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, and the Federal Ministry of Defence.
Publications of this project
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Ruhe vor dem Sturm? Ägyptens Jugend unter Präsident al-Sisi
In Ägypten konnten Jugendproteste bislang durch systematische politische Kontrolle, digitale Repression und Abwanderung verhindert werden. Angesichts wachsender sozioökonomischer Perspektivlosigkeit und demografischer Dynamiken steigt jedoch das Protestpotenzial, so Stephan Roll und Josef Schreck.
Megatrends Spotlight 50, 23.03.2026 -
The Calm before the Storm? Egypt’s Youth under President al-Sisi
In Egypt, youth-led protests have been avoided as a result of systematic political control, digital repression, and emigration. However, amid deepening socio-economic despair and demographic pressures, the possibility of future protests is increasing, according to Stephan Roll and Josef Schreck.
Megatrends spotlight 68, 23.03.2026 -
The Politics of Translocality
Households in Southern Africa often migrate for work, education and services while maintaining economic, social and political ties to their rural homes. Drawing on a survey in seven countries, this policy brief analyses the effects of climate change on, and governance implications of, translocality.
Megatrends Policy Brief 47, 19.03.2026, 10 Pagesdoi:10.18449/2026MTA-PB47
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Beyond Jihadism: Security Concerns along Senegal’s Border with Mali
In 2025, JNIM's advance into Mali's Kayes region brought extremist violence close to Senegal's eastern border. But while the JNIM threat looms large in national and international policymaking circles, local concerns are less heeded, writes Hannah Rae Armstrong.
Megatrends Policy Brief 46, 11.03.2026, 12 Pagesdoi:10.18449/2026MTA-PB46
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Sino-Indian Rivalry: Competition, Collaboration and African Agency
China-India relations have recently stabilized, although rivalry persists, fuelling competition in Africa over economic sectors, resources and narratives. Hangwei Li and Raj Verma examine how African governments can leverage dynamics of competition and convergence to strengthen their agency.
Megatrends spotlight 67, 09.03.2026 -
Judging One’s Own Credit: Risks and Promises of an African Credit Rating Agency
Faced with high borrowing costs, African leaders and the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM) have selected Mauritius to host a continental credit rating agency to reduce dependence on the “Big Three” and counter perceived bias. But will investors trust it?
Megatrends spotlight 66, 05.03.2026
