The arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu has sent a chilling signal about the state of democracy in the country. The authors of this article have repeatedly argued that the political attacks against İmamoğlu risk pushing Turkey’s authoritarianism beyond a critical limit. As President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan bets that Turkey’s strategic value will shield him from serious consequences, Europe must now answer a crucial question: Should it forge a security partnership with a government that has completely abandoned democratic principles?
İmamoğlu’s arrest on corruption charges is not an isolated incident – it is just the latest in Erdoğan’s sustained campaign to marginalise political rivals and erode democratic institutions over more than a decade of autocratisation. With the detention of his most prominent rival, President Erdoğan has effectively crossed a new threshold, one that leaves little room for political competition – the last vestige of democratic practice in Turkey. The arrest undermines the possibility for free elections, which have not been fair since 2015, and irreparably biases the existing political playing field.
Although the motivations behind this move are primarily domestic – namely a deepening economic crisis and growing public discontent – Erdoğan appears determined to neutralise any threats to his rule ahead of upcoming elections, scheduled for 2028. International developments have facilitated this authoritarian manoeuvre. The global resurgence of authoritarian politics – and particularly the return of Donald Trump to the White House – has emboldened strongmen worldwide. Erdoğan seems to have calculated that the US administration would once again turn a blind eye to democratic backsliding abroad, as indicated in the recent statement by the US State Department spokesperson, who dismissed the question concerning İmamoğlu’s arrest as an internal judicial affair.
The same logic applies to Europe. Erdoğan currently feels emboldened in his dealings with European governments, particularly due to shifting dynamics in transatlantic security. With the erosion of trust in the US security umbrella – especially in the context of a Trump administration – Europe has recognised the urgent need to invest in its own collective defence.
Europe’s security calculus
In this new geopolitical context, Turkey is emerging as a key player in Europe’s future security arrangements. This is evident in the recent tempering of diplomatic discourse between Ankara and European capitals. Erdoğan is opportunistically using Turkey’s potential role in a future European security architecture as a shield against criticism of his domestic power grabs.
But the question confronting Europe is no longer just moral – it is strategic: Can a long-term security partnership be sustained with a regime that rejects democratic norms, lacks institutional checks, and concentrates power in a single individual? The answer must be no.
Vladimir Putin’s Russia is the best case in point: After years of hoping that economic partnership and interdependence would lay the groundwork for political stability, it has turned against the Europeans with its war against Ukraine. Why should Europe expect a different outcome with Erdoğan’s Turkey? Likewise, if Trump’s return to power has shown that unpredictability and disregard for democratic norms are unacceptable foundations for transatlantic security, then the same logic must apply to Turkey. Strategic security partnerships require trust and predictability – qualities that Ankara has repeatedly failed to offer.
Europe should certainly seek pragmatic co-operation with Turkey, especially in an increasingly unstable global security environment, but it must also draw clear boundaries. A democratic Turkey can be trusted to be a reliable security partner for Europe, but a non-democratic one cannot.
Instead of issuing yet another vague statement of “concern”, the EU must deliver a clear and principled message to both the Turkish government and its public: Europe wishes to deepen its relations with Turkey, but such a partnership is only possible with a Turkey that maintains at least a minimum level of democratic governance and rule of law. A strategic alliance with a regime that has abandoned all democratic norms is not sustainable – neither politically nor morally.
This clarity is crucial – not only for Europe’s long-term credibility, but also to signal to Turkish society that authoritarian consolidation will not be rewarded with international legitimacy.
