An Istanbul prosecutor has launched two legal investigations against Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, amidst a judicial crackdown on municipalities run by the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP). The indictment charges İmamoğlu with “insulting and targeting a public official” and “attempting to influence a trial”, and demands a prison sentence of at least two years and eight months. The first hearing will be held on 11 April 2025. Finally, on 22 February, another investigation was opened against İmamoğlu, this time claiming that his university diploma was “forged”.
The legal manoeuvres only deepen concerns that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan aims to neutralise İmamoğlu, who is currently the CHP’s strongest potential challenger for the 2028 elections. This marks a qualitative leap in Turkey’s authoritarian trajectory, a shift from merely repressing the opposition to using judicial means to systematically eliminate the most viable electoral challengers.
Towards full authoritarianism
Turkey’s political system has been undergoing a gradual authoritarian consolidation for years. President Erdoğan controls most of the media and effectively dictates judicial decisions. Turkey remains one of the worst jailers of journalists, and the government continues to suppress protests and harass civil society groups. While political rights and freedoms erode, the opposition faces growing threats from the government.
Criminalising the opposition
Kurdish opposition leaders have long been subject to repression. Selahattin Demirtaş has been imprisoned since 2016 alongside many other Kurdish politicians. A former leader of the pro-Kurdish People’s Democracy Party (HDP), he is arguably the opposition’s most charismatic figure. And for years now the state has been appointing trustees (kayyum) to govern municipalities won by the HDP and its successor, the Democracy Party (DEM). Mayors are removed on terrorism charges within months of their election, and state administrators take over. Terrorism charges are used sweepingly to suppress opposition leaders and civil society actors. While public attention often focuses on high-profile cases like Demirtaş or businessman Osman Kavala, millions of ordinary citizens – including teachers, academics, civil servants and small business owners – have also faced terrorism investigations.
Despite the shrinking political space, Turkey’s electoral system has remained resilient, allowing the opposition to secure local election victories in major cities in 2019 and 2024. While political competition is increasingly restricted, the electoral process itself has been historically resistant to outright fraud.
Now, however, Erdoğan is taking steps to eliminate electoral turnover entirely. Repression that historically focussed on Kurdish politicians has now expanded to target the broader opposition. The recent prosecution of nationalist leader Ümit Özdağ and renewed legal action against Gezi Park protestors from the cultural scene signal a wider crackdown.
The targeting of Ekrem İmamoğlu
The escalating lawfare against Istanbul’s CHP mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu underscores this shift. A state trustee has been appointed in Esenyurt district in Istanbul, the first time this has happened in a metropolitan municipality outside the Kurdish-majority areas. The investigation into alleged corruption in Istanbul’s local administration appears designed to eventually implicate İmamoğlu. This is not the first time İmamoğlu has been targeted. In 2022, a trial for allegedly insulting judges was used to prevent his nomination as the opposition’s presidential candidate in 2023.
If Erdoğan continues dismantling opposition forces the next elections may be a mere formality. He has already signalled his intention to run again in the next presidential election, despite term limits. Turkey’s political future is at a critical juncture. If Erdoğan succeeds in neutralising İmamoğlu and the broader opposition, the next elections may be little more than a sham, marking the final transition to a fully authoritarian regime.
