The Zambian government aims to optimize mining revenues, trade and investments to address budget shortfalls created by the Trump administration’s sudden cuts to US aid. This presents an opportunity for the EU to expand its economic cooperation with Zambia.
US development assistance to Zambia has largely been used for public health initiatives such as HIV/AIDS prevention (information campaigns and pre-exposure prophylaxis) and treatment (antiretroviral medication). Here, two Zambians learn about AIDS prevention during an event marking World AIDS Day in Lusaka, Zambia, on December 1, 2022.
© picture alliance / Xinhua News Agency | Peng Lijun
Zambia enjoyed warm relations with the United States – and almost USD 600 million in development assistance annually – throughout the leadership of Joe Biden. This encouraged some opposition political parties to promote conspiracy theories on social media that presented Zambia’s president, Hakainde Hichilema, as a puppet of the “imperialist” West. Donald Trump’s return to the White House has disrupted these narratives, since he does not have a close relationship with President Hichilema. Additionally, the Trump administration has introduced a review of US foreign development assistance, which has resulted in the withdrawal of funding to public health initiatives in Zambia, the shuttering of the US Agency for International Development (USAID) offices, and speculation that the construction of the Lobito Corridor will be delayed.
Trump’s supporters on US social media have turned USAID projects in Zambia into a source of conspiracy theories about the Clinton family’s wealth and a reason to ridicule the Biden administration’s use of taxpayer dollars. President Trump also told a joint session of the US Congress that he considers the dispersal of USD 250,000 for a Vegan Local Climate Action Innovation project in Zambia to be an example of wasteful expenditure. This project promoted regulatory reforms and community-based initiatives that encourage plant-based food production as a strategy for reducing the environmental damage caused by intensive animal farming. However, it appears that Trump considers the funds dispersed for the project as an “appalling waste” because its objectives do not align with his administration’s views on global climate action.
The withdrawal of US development assistance to Zambia comes at a time when the economy is struggling to recover from the effects of a severe drought and protracted debt restructuring negotiations. This setback has united Zambians from across the political divide on the importance of enhancing domestic resource mobilisation and fiscal discipline in government agencies. There is optimism that the country can use these strategies to achieve its long-held goal of attaining self-reliance and becoming less vulnerable to external shocks.
Almost three quarters of US development assistance to Zambia has been channelled to the public health sector through the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) and multilateral initiatives such as The Global Fund. These funds have enabled government and non-governmental organisations to provide community-based services aimed at preventing and treating HIV/AIDS, malaria, tuberculosis, cervical cancer and sexually transmitted diseases. The Trump administration’s decision to stop funding these initiatives has led to the termination of dozens of projects across the country and left almost 23,000 people unemployed and in a state of emotional distress. This includes a 31-year-old facilitator of a project for orphans and vulnerable children in Katete district who is reported to have taken his own life after learning that the PEPFAR-funded project would be ceasing operations. The life-threatening implications of terminating these projects for the 1.2 million Zambians who have relied on them for antiretroviral (ARV) medications have generated panic due to rumours alleging that government services are running out of medicines. This is happening even though the Ministry of Health has emphasised that its medical stores currently have sufficient stocks of ARVs and efforts are being made to procure a buffer stock.
Despite these challenges, several Zambian social media users have argued that President Trump’s actions offer African countries an opportunity to reflect on why they are still dependent on external financial assistance and to come up with innovative solutions that can fund their basic needs for services such as health care. Politicians from the ruling United Party for National Development and opposition parties have responded to these debates by using Dambisa Moyo’s 2009 book titled Dead Aid to underscore the value of increasing domestic resource mobilisation. Opposition politicians have argued that the government can facilitate this process by improving the efficiency of its revenue collection from the mining industry and reforming its bureaucratic structures to curb the misappropriation of public funds.
President Hichilema has expressed gratitude for the harsh slap or reality check that the Trump administration has given Zambia, as it will force the government and private-sector actors to assume responsibility for the provision of local services. Hichilema has also described the withdrawal of US development assistance as a wake-up call for African countries to use their financial institutions, regional trade and investments to accelerate their socio-economic development.
The Lobito Corridor is a network that involves the expansion of a rail line, roads, communication technologies and energy infrastructure from the mineral-rich regions of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Zambia to the Atlantic Ocean port of Lobito in Angola. The Hichilema government joined the network as part of its wider plan to develop multiple transport corridors that will safeguard landlocked Zambia’s access to global markets through shipping. Between 2023 and 2024, the United States and the European Union (EU) committed to providing multibillion-dollar investments to support the development of the Lobito Corridor, which is being driven by the G7’s Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment.
Investments in the Lobito Corridor are expected to protect the access of the United States and Europe to critical minerals (e.g. copper, cobalt, lithium, manganese and nickel) from Africa and to reduce China’s influence over supply chains. These are goals that align with the Trump administration’s interest in strategically using US foreign development assistance to secure the critical minerals that are required for the production of advanced technologies. However, there is confusion as to what extent the Trump administration will follow through with pledged commitments to the construction of the Lobito Corridor as well as speculation that cuts to US funding will delay the construction schedule. This has stimulated debates about the risks involved in relying on investments from Western countries.
Amid this rapidly changing context, the Chinese government is moving forward with its plans to rehabilitate infrastructure along the TAZARA Railway, which will safeguard its access to Zambia’s mineral resources via the Indian Ocean port of Dar es Salaam in Tanzania. However, the Zambian government follows a foreign policy of non-alignment and has recognised the economic opportunities that can be obtained from this competitive environment. Consequently, it has encouraged partners from Egypt, Japan, India, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Russia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to invest in joint ventures that will help Zambia develop its transport infrastructure, mining industry and plans to establish an electric vehicle battery production zone along the border with the DRC. This suggests that the recent shift in US foreign policy has the potential to push the Zambian government towards pursuing more trade and investment partnerships with non-Western countries.
Independent of Trump’s aid cuts, several European governments have indicated that they intend to phase out or reduce the scale of their bilateral development assistance to Zambia due to budgetary pressures created by the war in Ukraine. These funding cuts, which mirror decisions taken after the 2008–2009 global financial crisis, may dampen trust or interest in future opportunities to engage in Africa-EU partnerships. European governments can reposition themselves as being more reliable than the Trump administration by gradually – rather than abruptly – withdrawing development assistance, so that their beneficiaries have sufficient time to find alternative sources of support. Funding cuts to public health and food security programmes in Zambia should be carefully planned and implemented in consultation with beneficiary organisations.
European countries should also strengthen their diplomatic relations with the Zambian government so that they can ensure its support for decisions made in multilateral forums. Commitments pledged towards the development of the Lobito Corridor should be fulfilled, and additional opportunities to expand bilateral trade and investments should be explored. This is especially important given that China, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are effectively using their diplomatic representatives to nurture political and economic ties with Zambia.
Dr Cynthia M. Kamwengo is a Research Fellow at the Margaret Anstee Centre for Global Studies, Newnham College, University of Cambridge.
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