A letter from the Federal Minister of Finance to his colleagues in the foreign and defence ministries, in which he points out the limits of support for Ukraine, has caused quite a stir. This is due not only to the letter itself, but also to the fact that there have long been doubts at home and abroad about the reliability and long-term goals of Germany's Ukraine policy. These doubts are anything but dispelled by the differing positions in the ruling coalition.
Above all, the question arises as to whether the German government is prepared to maintain at least its current level of support for Ukraine. Leading politicians often emphasise that Germany is the principal backer of Ukraine in Europe and in second place overall behind the USA. This strong support allows Germany to credibly demand a greater commitment from European allies such as France or Spain. However, this position has been called into question by the recently revealed intentions of some key players within the German government to significantly reduce aid from the federal budget for Ukraine in the upcoming years.
In particular, the plans of the finance ministry to replace German assistance with funds generated from confiscated Russian assets appear disingenuous. After all, it is still unclear how and when such a mechanism could function. The fact that this option is being discussed now, rather than when the mechanism is in place, suggests that the issue may be linked to ongoing election campaigns in some eastern German states, where opposition to military support for Ukraine is strong. This creates the impression that at least parts of the ruling coalition are willing to prioritise short-term election campaign aims over long-term security objectives.
Serious support requires flexibility
The ongoing Ukrainian attack on the Russian region of Kursk demonstrates that combat operations can require unexpected tactical or even strategic adjustments that require more - rather than fewer - military resources from Ukraine. If the German government wants Ukraine to be able to defend itself and to improve its negotiating position, Berlin must retain a certain amount of room for manoeuvre with regard to future assistance.
The current plans for a significant aid reduction suggest that this room for manoeuvre is lacking. Even if requests for additional funding can potentially be submitted by relevant German authorities, a legitimate question arises as to whether the criteria used to decide on them will be based on fiscal or security-related concerns.
The coherence of European security policy is at stake
The German government has come out in favour of the planned stationing of US medium-range missiles on German soil as a necessary measure to deter Russia. However, Ukraine's ability to drive Russian troops out of its territory and prevent Moscow from renewing its attacks also serves to deter Russia and thus contributes to German and European security.
The more successful Ukraine is in thwarting Russia's aims, the less likely it is that the proposed American missiles will need to be used in the future. Support for Ukraine and the deployment of US conventional weapons are therefore two elements of the same security policy approach. Advocating one while scaling back the other seems inconsistent and jeopardises the security of Germany and Europe.
Germany is losing credibility
Even if the impact of this debate on German support for Ukraine turns out to be relatively small, the signalling effect of the communication to date has been devastating in several respects. Germany is losing credibility with its partners, especially since Berlin initially cautioned against utilizing (interest on) Russian reserves but now assumes that this issue can be resolved quickly. Even more problematic is that Germany's behaviour lends credence to Putin’s assumption that Western states will reduce their military support for Ukraine over time and that he therefore has the upper hand.
Berlin’s current approach weakens Ukraine during a critical phase in which Kyiv is attempting to improve its position in multiple ways by deploying on Russian territory. A clear signal from the German government that the level of assistance to Ukraine in 2025 will be at least as high as in 2024 - even if the Russian reserves remain off-limits - would be appropriate.
